The Ukraine War and the Shift in Russian Intelligence Priorities

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has transformed Russian intelligence activities. It has drawn the bulk of Russian intelligence collection resources, both inside Ukraine and further afield, to focus on war-related, often low-level operational/tactical targets. Even strategic collection is related to the war, especially directed toward bolstering Russia’s global reputation. However, the war has also led to the dismantling of a large portion of Russia’s intelligence apparatus, including both human and signals intelligence, especially in Europe, just when it is needed the most. It has prompted greater scrutiny and international counterintelligence cooperation against Russian intelligence activities than has been seen since the 1980s. Russia’s own actions have drawn those reactions. Nevertheless, Russian intelligence services are resilient and persistent. They learn from mistakes and adapt to changing circumstances.