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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/23329
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dc.contributor.authorSera, F-
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, B-
dc.contributor.authorAbbott, S-
dc.contributor.authorMeakin, S-
dc.contributor.authorO’Reilly, K-
dc.contributor.authorvon Borries, R-
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, R-
dc.contributor.authorRoyé, D-
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, M-
dc.contributor.authorPascal, M-
dc.contributor.authorTobias, A-
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, AM-
dc.contributor.authorZeka, A-
dc.contributor.authorMCC Collaborative Research Network-
dc.contributor.authorCMMID COVID-19 Working Group-
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, A-
dc.contributor.authorLowe, R-
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-13T16:48:33Z-
dc.date.available2021-10-13-
dc.date.available2021-10-13T16:48:33Z-
dc.date.issued2021-10-13-
dc.identifier5968-
dc.identifier.citationSera, F., Armstrong, B., Abbott, S., MCC Collaborative Research Network, Zeka, A., CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Lowe, R. et al. (2021) 'A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries', Nature Communications, 12, 5968, pp. 1 - 11. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/23329-
dc.description.abstract© The Author(s) 2021. There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Re with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipD.R. was supported by a postdoctoral research fellowship of the Xunta de Galicia (Spain). A.G. was funded by the Medical Research Council-UK (Grant ID: MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655). R.L. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship. S.A. and S.M. were funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant 210758/Z/18/Z210758/Z/18/Z). The following funding sources are acknowledged as providing funding for the MCC Collaborative Research Network authors: J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation, project 18-22125S. S.T. was supported by the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission (Grant 18411951600). N.S. is supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776). H.K. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (BK21 Center for Integrative Response to Health Disasters, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University). A.S., F.D.R. and S.R. were funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655). Each member of the CMMID COVID-19 Working Group contributed to processing, cleaning and interpretation of data, interpreted findings, contributed to the manuscript and approved the work for publication. The following funding sources are acknowledged as providing funding for the CMMID COVID-19 working group authors. This research was partly funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-001754: M.Q; INV-003174: K.P., M.J., Y.L., J.L.; NTD Modelling Consortium OPP1184344: C.A.B.P., G.M.; OPP1180644: S.R.P.; OPP1183986: E.S.N.). BMGF (OPP1157270: K.E.A.). DFID/Wellcome Trust (Epidemic Preparedness Coronavirus research programme 221303/Z/20/Z: C.A.B.P.). EDCTP2 (RIA2020EF-2983-CSIGN: H.P.G.). ERC Starting Grant (#757699: M.Q.). This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme—project EpiPose (101003688: K.P., M.J., P.K., R.C.B., W.J.E., Y.L.). This research was partly funded by the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) project ‘RECAP’ managed through RCUK and ESRC (ES/P010873/1: A.G., C.I.J., T.J.). HDR UK (MR/S003975/1: R.M.E.). MRC (MR/N013638/1: N.R.W.; MR/V027956/1: W.W.). Nakajima Foundation (A.E.). This research was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the UK Department of Health and Social Care (16/136/46: B.J.Q.; 16/137/109: B.J.Q., F.Y.S., M.J., Y.L.; Health Protection Research Unit for Immunisation NIHR200929: N.G.D.; Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling Methodology HPRU-2012-10096: T.J.; NIHR200908: R.M.E.; NIHR200929: F.G.S., M.J.; PR-OD-1017-20002: A.R., W.J.E.). Royal Society (Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship: R.L.; RP\EA\180004: P.K.). UK DHSC/UK Aid/NIHR (PR-OD-1017-20001: H.P.G.). UK MRC (MC_PC_19065—Covid 19: Understanding the dynamics and drivers of the COVID-19 epidemic using real-time outbreak analytics: A.G., N.G.D., R.M.E., S.C., T.J., W.J.E., Y.L.; MR/P014658/1: G.M.K.). Authors of this research receive funding from the UK Public Health Rapid Support Team funded by the United Kingdom Department of Health and Social Care (T.J.). Wellcome Trust (206250/Z/17/Z: A.J.K., T.W.R.; 206471/Z/17/Z: O.B.; 208812/Z/17/Z: S.C.; 210758/Z/18/Z: J.D.M., J.H., N.I.B.; UNS110424: F.K.). No funding (A.M.F., A.S., C.J.V.-A., D.C.T., J.W., K.E.A., Y.-W.D.C.). LSHTM, DHSC/UKRI COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative (MR/V028456/1: Y.L.). Innovation Fund of the Joint Federal Committee (01VSF18015: F.K.). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office/Wellcome Trust (221303/Z/20/Z: M.K.).en_US
dc.format.extent1 - 11-
dc.languageEnglish-
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen_US
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2021. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.-
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/-
dc.subjectclimate sciencesen_US
dc.subjectepidemiologyen_US
dc.subjectrisk factorsen_US
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2en_US
dc.titleA cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countriesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8-
dc.relation.isPartOfNature Communications-
pubs.publication-statusPublished-
pubs.volume12-
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723-
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