Essays on modelling house prices

Abstract

Housing prices are of crucial importance in financial stability management. The severe financial crises that originated in the housing market in the US and subsequently spread throughout the world highlighted the crucial role that the housing market plays in preserving financial stability. After the severe housing market crash, many financial institutions in the US suffered from high default rates, severe liquidity shortages, and even bankruptcy. Against this background, researchers have sought to use econometric models to capture and forecast prices of homes. Available empirical research indicates that nonlinear models may be suitable for modelling price cycles. Accordingly, this thesis focuses primarily on using nonlinear models to empirically investigate cyclical patterns in housing prices. More specifically, the content of this thesis can be summarised in three essays which complement the existing literature on price modelling by using nonlinear models. The first essay contributes to the literature by testing the ability of regime switching models to capture and forecast house prices. The second essay examines the impact of banking factors on house price fluctuations. To account for house price characteristics, the regime switching model and generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) in-mean model have been used. The final essay investigates the effect of structural breaks on the unit root test and shows that a time-varying GARCH in-mean model can be used to estimate the housing price cycle in the UK.