A Conceptual Approach to Agent-Based Modelling of Coping Mechanisms in Climate-Driven Flooding in Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh stands as a prime example of a nation exceptionally vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Its low-lying coastal and deltaic landscape predisposes it to frequent flooding, a challenge exacerbated by a significant portion of its population grappling with poverty. The country is already experiencing the impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe flooding that has led to the displacement of millions of people and has intensified existing social and economic challenges. Despite these formidable challenges, Bangladesh has also emerged as a global leader in climate resilience and preparedness, having made significant progress in reducing cyclone-related deaths and protecting its population from the consequences of climate change. Notably, non-governmental organisations, like our partners Save the Children, are keen to explore how they can support the most vulnerable communities by establishing the efficacy of current coping strategies for sustained resilience against climate change. To facilitate this, we are in the process of creating an agent-based model that examines the coping mechanisms adopted in response to climate-induced flooding in Bangladesh. This paper presents the initial phase of developing a multiscale conceptual model tailored to understanding this complex situation.