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Title: | Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation |
Authors: | Harwood, N Hall, R Di Capu, G Russell, A Tucker, A |
Keywords: | Arctic;North Atlantic Ocean;atmospheric circulation;teleconnections;algorithms;machine learning |
Issue Date: | 24-Feb-2021 |
Publisher: | American Meteorological Society |
Citation: | Harwood, N. et al. (2021) 'Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation', Journal of Climate, 34 (6), pp. 2319 - 2335. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1. |
Abstract: | Recent enhanced warming and sea ice depletion in the Arctic have been put forward as potential drivers of severe weather in the midlatitudes. Evidence of a link between Arctic warming and midlatitude atmospheric circulation is growing, but the role of Arctic processes relative to other drivers remains unknown. Arctic–midlatitude connections in the North Atlantic region are particularly complex but important due to the frequent occurrence of severe winters in recent decades. Here, dynamic Bayesian networks with hidden variables are introduced to the field to assess their suitability for teleconnection analyses. Climate networks are constructed to analyze North Atlantic circulation variability at 5-day to monthly time scales during the winter months of the years 1981–2018. The inclusion of a number of Arctic, midlatitude, and tropical variables allows for an investigation into the relative role of Arctic influence compared to internal atmospheric variability and other remote drivers. A robust covariability between regions of amplified Arctic warming and two definitions of midlatitude circulation is found to occur entirely within winter at submonthly time scales. Hidden variables incorporated in networks represent two distinct modes of stratospheric polar vortex variability, capturing a periodic shift between average conditions and slower anomalous flow. The influence of the Barents–Kara Seas region on the North Atlantic Oscillation is found to be the strongest link at 5- and 10-day averages, while the stratospheric polar vortex strongly influences jet variability on monthly time scales. |
Description: | Data availability statement: All climate index data (NAO, ENSO, and MJO) and reanalysis data (TBK, TNA, and PoV) are derived from public data that is openly available; source websites are given alongside their references in the data section (section 2). Jet latitude data are derived from ERA-Interim data (700-900 hPa zonal wind), publicly available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim. The Meandering Index (MI) is also derived from ERA-Interim (500-hPa geopotential height) at the same source, but is available in fully processed form at https://github.com/giorgiadicapua/MeanderingIndex. |
URI: | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/27155 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1 |
ISSN: | 0894-8755 |
Other Identifiers: | ORCID iD: Allan Tucker https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5105-3506 |
Appears in Collections: | Dept of Computer Science Research Papers |
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