An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States

Abstract

US asset prices are modelled in the short- and long-run with the use of a seemingly unrelated system using monthly data over the time period, 1983–2004. Once the shocks of 1987, 1997 and post-“9·11” have been accounted for, then volatility only affects the consumption and inflation equations. In the long run excess returns and inflation are driven by consumption growth. Money growth impacts excess returns and inflation via consumption. Income is super exogenous implying that policy can be made conditional on this variable and that in the long run investors are primarily concerned with income growth.