The monetary model of the US Dollar–Japanese Yen exchange rate: An empirical investigation

Abstract

This article considers the long-run performance of the monetary approach to explain the dollar–yen exchange rates during a period of high international capital mobility. We apply the Johansen methodology to quarterly data over the period 1980:01–2009:04 and show that the historical inadequacy of the monetary approach is due to the breakdown of its underlying building-blocks, money demand stability and purchasing power parity. Our findings on long-run weak exogeneity tests emphasize the importance of the extended model employed here. This shows that cumulative shocks to nominal exchange rates can be explained by variables outside the usual price and interest rates.