Implementation of taylor type rules in nascent money and capital markets under managed exchange rates

Abstract

We investigate the practical use of Taylor-type rules in Trinidad and Tobago, which is in the process of implementing market based monetary policy and seeks to implement flexible inflation targeting in the presence of a managed exchange rate. This is motivated by the idea that normative Taylor rules can be shaped by the practical experience of developing countries. We find that the inflation – exchange rate nexus is strong, hence the country may be unwilling to allow the exchange rate to float freely. We contend that despite weak market development the Taylor rule can still be applied as the central bank is able to use moral suasion to achieve full pass through of the policy rate to the market rate. Our evidence rejects Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) argument that the optimal monetary policy rule for the open economy is isomorphic for a closed economy. Rather, our evidence suggests that the rule for the open economy allows for lower variability when the rule is augmented by the real exchange rate as in Taylor (2001). We also reject Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) hypothesis that domestic inflation is optimal for inclusion in the Taylor-type rule. Instead we find that core CPI inflation leads to lower variability. Additionally, our evidence suggests that the monetary rule, when applied to Trinidad and Tobago, is accommodating to the US Federal Reserve rate. Further, we expand the work of Martin and Milas (2010) which considered the pass through of the policy rate to the interbank rate in the presence of risk and liquidity. By extending the transmission to the market lending rate, we are able to go beyond those disruptive factors by considering excess liquidity and spillovers of international economic disturbances. We found that these shocks are significant for Trinidad and Tobago, but it is not significant enough to disrupt the pass through. As a result, full pass through was robust to the presence of these disruptive factors.