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Title: | Intelligence warning in the Ukraine war, Autumn 2021 – Summer 2022 |
Authors: | Gustafson, K Lomas, D Wagner, S |
Keywords: | Ukraine;intelligence;warning;Russia;assessment |
Issue Date: | 10-Mar-2024 |
Publisher: | Routledge (Taylor & Francis Group) |
Citation: | Gustafson, K., Lomas, D. and Wagner, S. (2024) 'Intelligence warning in the Ukraine war, Autumn 2021 – Summer 2022', Intelligence and National Security, 0 (ahead of print) pp. 1 - 20. doi: 10.1080/02684527.2024.2322214. |
Abstract: | Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is a unique case study of the use of warning intelligence. The article shows that whilst Russia’s invasion has sparked a wave of interest on aspects of intelligence, including the use of open source and ‘prebuttal’, the fundamentals of warning intelligence – the forewarning of major threats in a timely manner so policymakers and officials can respond – remain the same as they have always have. The article also suggests that whilst both sides of the conflict had intelligence advantages at the start, intelligence only becomes a significant force multiplier if the consumer sees value in it and uses it. For Russia, significant intelligence advantages were not fully exploited with the effect that they lost the initiative. Ukraine, whilst initially taken by surprise at the tactical and operational level, was able to use intelligence to its advantage. This, we argue, had long lasting implications for the course of the first period of the conflict. Footnote 1. |
Description: | Footnote 1. The authors wish to acknowledge the contributions of Professor Philip Davies and Dr Neveen Abdalla, who co-authored our original pieces in War on the Rocks, from which this article is developed. |
URI: | https://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28506 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2024.2322214 |
ISSN: | 0268-4527 |
Other Identifiers: | ORCiD: Kristian Gustafson https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5532-3742 ORCiD: Dan Lomas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4254-2225 ORCiD: Steven Wagner https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6347-8154 |
Appears in Collections: | Dept of Social and Political Sciences Research Papers |
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FullText.pdf | Copyright 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent. | 809.38 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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