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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28431
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dc.contributor.authorChen, K-
dc.contributor.authorde Schrijver, E-
dc.contributor.authorSivaraj, S-
dc.contributor.authorSera, F-
dc.contributor.authorScovronick, N-
dc.contributor.authorJiang, L-
dc.contributor.authorRoye, D-
dc.contributor.authorLavigne, E-
dc.contributor.authorKyselý, J-
dc.contributor.authorUrban, A-
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, A-
dc.contributor.authorHuber, V-
dc.contributor.authorMadureira, J-
dc.contributor.authorMistry, MN-
dc.contributor.authorCvijanovic, I-
dc.contributor.authorArmstrong, B-
dc.contributor.authorSchneider, R-
dc.contributor.authorTobias, A-
dc.contributor.authorAstrom, C-
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Y-
dc.contributor.authorHonda, Y-
dc.contributor.authorAbrutzky, R-
dc.contributor.authorTong, S-
dc.contributor.authorde Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M-
dc.contributor.authorSaldiva, PHN-
dc.contributor.authorCorrea, PM-
dc.contributor.authorOrtega, NV-
dc.contributor.authorKan, H-
dc.contributor.authorOsorio, S-
dc.contributor.authorOrru, H-
dc.contributor.authorIndermitte, E-
dc.contributor.authorJaakkola, JJK-
dc.contributor.authorRyti, N-
dc.contributor.authorPascal, M-
dc.contributor.authorKatsouyanni, K-
dc.contributor.authorAnalitis, A-
dc.contributor.authorMayvaneh, F-
dc.contributor.authorEntezari, A-
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, P-
dc.contributor.authorZeka, A-
dc.contributor.authorMichelozzi, P-
dc.contributor.authorde’Donato, F-
dc.contributor.authorHashizume, M-
dc.contributor.authorAlahmad, B-
dc.contributor.authorDiaz, MH-
dc.contributor.authorDe la Cruz Valencia, C-
dc.contributor.authorOvercenco, A-
dc.contributor.authorHouthuijs, D-
dc.contributor.authorAmeling, C-
dc.contributor.authorRao, S-
dc.contributor.authorCarrasco-Escobar, G-
dc.contributor.authorSeposo, X-
dc.contributor.authorda Silva, SP-
dc.contributor.authorHolobaca, IH-
dc.contributor.authorAcquaotta, F-
dc.contributor.authorKim, H-
dc.contributor.authorLee, W-
dc.contributor.authorÍñiguez, C-
dc.contributor.authorForsberg, B-
dc.contributor.authorRagettli, MS-
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Y-LL-
dc.contributor.authorPan, S-C-
dc.contributor.authorLi, S-
dc.contributor.authorColistro, V-
dc.contributor.authorZanobetti, A-
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, J-
dc.contributor.authorDang, TN-
dc.contributor.authorVan Dung, D-
dc.contributor.authorCarlsen, HK-
dc.contributor.authorCauchi, JP-
dc.contributor.authorAchilleos, S-
dc.contributor.authorRaz, R-
dc.contributor.authorGasparrini, A-
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, AM-
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-28T20:40:08Z-
dc.date.available2024-02-28T20:40:08Z-
dc.date.issued2024-02-27-
dc.identifierORCiD: Kai Chen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0164-1112-
dc.identifierORCiD: Evan de Schrijver https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2679-0464-
dc.identifierORCiD: Francesco Sera https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8890-6848-
dc.identifierORCiD: Noah Scovronick https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1410-3337-
dc.identifierORCiD: Dominic Roye https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5516-6396-
dc.identifierORCiD: Alexandra Schneider https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1084-2442-
dc.identifierORCiD: Veronika Huber https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9633-2752-
dc.identifierORCiD: Malcolm N. Mistry https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3345-6197-
dc.identifierORCiD: Ivana Cvijanovic https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7745-
dc.identifierORCiD: Ariana Zeka https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9570-8831-
dc.identifierORCiD: Antonio Gasparrini https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2271-3568-
dc.identifierORCiD: Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6982-8867-
dc.identifier1796-
dc.identifier.citationChen, K., et al., and the MCC Collaborative Research Network (2024) 'Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels', Nature Communications, 15 (1), 1796, pp. 1 - 13. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/28431-
dc.descriptionData availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Data were collected within the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available.en_US
dc.descriptionCode availability: A sample of the analysis code is available from https://github.com/CHENlab-Yale/MCC_ProjAging_Temp .-
dc.descriptionSupplementary information is available online at: https://link-springer-com.ezproxytest.brunel.ac.uk/article/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z#Sec15 .-
dc.description.abstractOlder adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. K.C. was supported by the Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant. A.G., A.S., and S.R. were supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion grant (820655). A.G. was also supported by the Medical Research Council UK grant (MR/V034162/1). J.M. received funding from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia Grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). A.T. was supported by the MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 grant (CEX2018-000794-S). A.U. and J.K. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S). F.S. was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project 2023-2027 ReDS ‘Rethinking Data Science’ - Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications - University of Florence. MNM. was supported by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA-IF-2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. A.V.C. acknowledges the support of the Swiss National Foundation (TMSGI3_211626). V.H. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No.: 101032087).en_US
dc.format.extent1 - 13-
dc.format.mediumElectronic-
dc.languageEnglish-
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen_US
dc.relation.urihttps://github.com/CHENlab-Yale/MCC_ProjAging_Temp-
dc.rightsCopyright © The Author(s) 2024. Rights and permissions: Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.-
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/-
dc.titleImpact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levelsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z-
dc.relation.isPartOfNature Communications-
pubs.issue1-
pubs.publication-statusPublished online-
pubs.volume15-
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723-
dc.rights.holderThe Author(s)-
Appears in Collections:Institute for the Environment

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