An Empirical Investigation of Director Selection in Movie Preproduction: A Two-Sided Matching Approach

Abstract

This paper examines how movie producers recruit directors in the preproduction phase as mutual choices in a two-sided matching model. It conceptualizes that movie attributes and filmmaker characteristics determine the matching outcomes (“who directed which movie”) and in turn indirectly affect movie box office. We exploit a dataset of 4,807 feature films from 1990 to 2010 to examine empirically the complementarities between the movie/producer side and the director side in terms of movie budget, filmmaker track records and social relations. A series of simulations suggest that social relations facilitate positive assortative matching. Further simulation analyses are conducted to quantify the financial implications of movie–director mismatches, as well as the indirect effects of production budget and producer characteristics. The simulation results show that: a) the financial implications of having a mismatched director can be substantial; and b) the indirect effect of production budget and producer characteristics affect movie box office in an interactive manner. These findings can help filmmakers to better understand the financial impacts of movie–director choices and make more informed decisions at the early phase of preproduction.