Testing for unit roots in bounded time series

Abstract

Many key economic and financial series are bounded either by construction or through policy controls. Conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of bounds, since they tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, even asymptotically. So far, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which can be applied to bounded time series. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by proposing unit root tests which are valid in the presence of bounds. We present new augmented Dickey-Fuller type tests as well as new versions of the modified ‘M ’ tests developed by Ng and Perron (2001, Econometrica 69, pp. 1519-1554) and demonstrate how these tests, combined with a simulation-based method to retrieve the relevant critical values, make it possible to control size asymptotically. A Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposed tests perform well in finite samples. Moreover, the tests outperform the Phillips-Perron type tests originally proposed in Cavaliere (2005, Econometric Theory 21, 907-945). An illustrative application to U.S. interest rate data is provided.