Effect of pedometer-based walking interventions on long-term health outcomes: prospective 4-year follow-up of two randomised controlled trials using routine primary care data

Abstract

© 2019 Harris et al. Background: Data are lacking from physical activity (PA) trials with long-term follow-up of both objectively measured PA levels and robust health outcomes. Two primary care 12-week pedometer-based walking interventions in adults and older adults (PACE-UP and PACE-Lift) found sustained objectively measured PA increases at 3 and 4 years, respectively. We aimed to evaluate trial intervention effects on long-term health outcomes relevant to walking interventions, using routine primary care data.

Methods and Findings: Randomisation was from October 2012-November 2013 for PACE-UP participants from seven general (family) practices and October 2011-October 2012 for PACE-Lift participants from three practices. We downloaded primary care data, masked to intervention or control status, for 1001 PACE-UP participants age 45-75 years, 36% (361) male and 296 PACE-Lift participants, age 60-75 years, 46% (138) male, who gave written informed consent, for 4-year periods following randomisation. The following new events were counted for all participants, including those with pre-existing diseases (apart from diabetes, where existing cases were excluded): non-fatal cardiovascular; total cardiovascular (including fatal); incident diabetes; depression; fractures; and falls. Intervention effects on time to first event post-randomisation were modelled using Cox regression for all outcomes, except for falls, which used Negative Binomial regression to allow for multiple events, adjusting for age, sex, and study. Absolute risk reductions (ARRs) and numbers needed to treat (NNT) were estimated.

Data were downloaded for 1297 (98%) of 1321 trial participants. Event rates were low (<20 per group) for outcomes, apart from fractures and falls. Cox Hazard ratios for time-to-first event post-randomisation for interventions versus controls were: non-fatal cardiovascular 0·24 (95% CI 0·07 to 0·77, p=0.02); total cardiovascular 0.34 (0.12 to 0.91, p=0.03); diabetes 0·75 (0·42 to 1·36, p=0.34); depression 0·98 (0·46 to 2·07, p=0.96); and fractures 0·56 (0·35 to 0·90, p=0.02). Negative binomial incident rate ratio for falls was 1.07 (95% CI 0·78–1·46, p=0.67). ARR and NNT (95% CI) for cardiovascular events were: non-fatal 1.7% (0.5% to 2.1%), NNT=59 (48 to 194); total 1.6% (0.2% to 2.2%), NNT=61 (46 to 472); and for fractures 3.6% (0.8% to 5.4%), NNT 28 (19 to 125). Main limitations were that event rates were low and only events recorded in primary care records were counted, however any under-recording would not have differed by intervention status, so should not have led to bias.

Discussion: Routine primary care data used to assess long-term trial outcomes demonstrated significantly fewer new cardiovascular events and fractures in intervention participants at 4 years. No statistically significant differences between intervention and control groups were demonstrated for other events. Short-term primary care pedometer-based walking interventions can produce long-term health benefits and should be more widely used to help address the public health inactivity challenge.

Trial Registrations: PACE-UP isrctn.com ISRCTN98538934; PACE-Lift isrctn.com ISRCTN42122561.