Utility of Model Input Uncertainty Analysis in Transferring Tobacco Control Related Economic Evidence to Countries with Scarce Resources: Results from the EQUIPT Study

Abstract

AIMS To inform transferability of tobacco control related economic evidence to resource-poor countries.

METHODS We ran a univariate sensitivity analysis on a return on investment (ROI) model, EQUIPTMOD, to identify key input values to which the ROI estimates were sensitive to. The EQUIPTMOD used a Markov-based state transition model to estimate the ROI of several tobacco control interventions in five European countries (England, Germany, Spain, Hungary and the Netherlands). Base case ROI estimates were obtained through average values of model inputs (across the five countries), which were then replaced one at a time with country-specific values. Tornado diagrams were used to evaluate the significance of sensitivity, defined as a ≥10% difference in ROI estimates from the base case estimates.

RESULTS The ROI estimates were sensitive to 18 (out of 46) input values. Examples of model inputs to which ROI estimates were sensitive included: smoking rate, costs of smoking-related diseases (e.g. lung cancer), and general population attributes.

CONCLUSION Countries that have limited research time and other resources can adapt EQUIPTMOD to their own settings by choosing to collect data on a small number of model inputs. EQUIPTMOD can therefore facilitate transfer of tobacco control related economic evidence to new jurisdictions.