The impact of the UK's emissions reduction initiative on the national food industry

Abstract

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This study aims at determining the technology combination that provides the lowest emissions and energy cost for the food-industrial sector. Using a linear optimization objective function in determining the least-cost pathway, data from various sources were compiled to perform simulations on two scenarios; a business as usual (BAU) case and an 80% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction. Even in the base case, the emission level reaches 21% of 1990 levels; a reduction of 39% over the simulation period. This indicates that even without the imposition of GHG constraints on the food sector, it is economically more beneficial for the industry to migrate from fossil fuels. This migration takes place by replacing energy from LPG, LFO, Kerosene, HFO, Coal and Natural gas with biomass, biogas and CHP electricity. Economic benefits arise from the fact that biogas and biomass are produced from wastes which are generated onsite within food factories, hence the avoidance of purchasing energy feedstock from the market. The change in energy consumption between the two scenarios is similar due to the prevalence of least-cost solutions and similar energy and food demand requirements. However, the reduction in emissions are greater in the 80%-GHG case than the BAU case; 52% compared to 39% for the BAU case, for 2050 relative to 2010. This is largely owing to decarbonization of grid electricity. This study finds that the food-industrial sector has the potential to exceed this 80% reduction target to a value of 92%, due to the availability of onsite feedstocks to generate biogas. In this simulation, of all waste produced, 92% of waste feedstock is consumed in AD and CHPs, whilst the remaining 8% is dried and processed to be burned in biomass boilers.