Investigation on integration of sustainable manufacturing and mathematical programming for technology selection and capacity planning

Abstract

Concerns about energy supply and climate change have been driving companies towards more sustainable manufacturing while they are looking on the economic side as well. One practicable task to achieve sustainability in manufacturing is choosing more sustainable technologies among available technologies. Combination of two functions of ‘Technology Selection’ and ‘Capacity Planning’ is not usually addressed in the research literature. The importance of integrated decisions on technology selection and capacity planning at such strategic level is therefore essentially important. This is supported by justifications in some selected manufacturing areas particularly concerning economies of the scale and accumulated knowledge. Furthermore, manufacturing firms are working in a global competitive environment that is changing in a continuous way. Strategic design of systems under such circumstances requires a carefully modelled approach to deal with the complexity of uncertainties. The overall project aims are to develop an integrated methodological approach to solving the combined ‘technology selection’ and ‘capacity planning’ problems in manufacturing sector. The approach will also incorporate the multi-perspective concept of sustainability, while taking uncertainties into account. A framework consisting of four modules is proposed. Problem structuring module adopts an Ontology method to map the technology mix combinations and to capture input data. ‘Optimisation for Sustainable Manufacturing’ module addresses the optimisation of technology selection and capacity planning decisions in an integrated way using Goal, Mixed Integer Programming method. The model developed takes the multi-criteria aspect of sustainability development into account. Three criteria, namely a) Environmental (e.g. Energy consumption and Emissions), b) Economics, and c) Technical (e.g. Quality) are involved. ‘Normalisation algorithm by comparison with the best value’ method is adopted in this research in order to facilitate a systematic comparison among various criteria. The economic evaluation is based on ‘Life-Cycle Analysis’ approach. The ‘Present Value (PV)’ method is adopted to address ‘Time Value of Money’, while taking both ‘Inflation’ and ‘Market Return’ into account in order to make the proposed model more realistic. A mathematical model to represent the total PV of each technology investment, including both capital and running costs, is developed. ‘Sensitivity Analysis’ module addresses the uncertainty element of the problem. A controlled set of re-optimisation runs, which is guided by a tool coded in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), is developed to perform intensive sensitivity analyses. It is aimed to deal with the uncertainty element of the problem. Within ‘Solution Structuring’ module, two knowledge structuring schemes, namely Decision Tree and Interactive Slider Diagram, are proposed to deal with the large size of solution sets generated by the “Sensitivity Analysis” module. An innovative, hybrid, Supervised and Unsupervised Machine Learning algorithm is developed to generate a decision tree that aims to structure the solution set. The unsupervised learning stage is implemented using DBSCAN algorithm, while the supervised learning element adopts C4.5 algorithm. The methodological approach is tested and validated using an exemplar case study on coating processes in an automotive company. The case is characterised by three operations, twelve possible technology mix states, both capital budget and environmental limits, and 243 different sensitivity analysis experiments. The painting systems are evaluated and compared based on their quality, technology life-cycle costs, and their potential VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds) emissions into the air.