Quantification of carbon emissions and savings in smart grids

Abstract

In this research, carbon emissions and carbon savings in the smart grid are modelled and quantified. Carbon emissions are defined as the product of the activity (energy) and the corresponding carbon factor. The carbon savings are estimated as the difference between the conventional and improved energy usage multiplied by the corresponding carbon factor. An adaptive seasonal model based on the hyperbolic tangent function (HTF) is developed to define seasonal and daily trends of electricity demand and the resultant carbon emissions. A stochastic model describing profiles of energy usage and carbon emissions for groups of consumers is developed. The flexibility of the HTF for modelling cycles of energy consumption is demonstrated and discussed with several case studies. The analytical description to determine electricity grid carbon intensity in the UK is derived, using the available fuel mix data from the Elexon portal. The uncertain realisation of energy data is forecasted and assimilated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The numerical optimisation of carbon emissions and savings in the smart grid is further performed using the ensemble-based Closed-loop Production Optimisation Scheme (EnOpt). The EnOpt involves the optimisation of fuel costs and carbon emissions (maximisation of carbon savings) in the smart grid subject to the operational control constraints. The software codes for the based on the application of EnKF and EnOpt are developed, and the optimisation of energy, cost and emissions is performed. The numerical simulation shows the ability of EnKF in forecasting and assimilating the energy data, and the robustness of the EnOpt in optimising costs and carbon savings. The proposed approach addresses the complexity and diversity of the power grid and may be implemented at the level of the transmission operator in collaboration with the operational wholesale electricity market and distribution network operators. The final stage of work includes the quantification of carbon emissions and savings in demand response (DR) programmes. DR programmes such as Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR), Triad, Fast Reserve, Frequency Control by Demand Management (FCDM) and smart meter roll-out are included, with various types of smart interventions. The DR programmes are modelled with appropriate configurations and assumptions in power plants used in the energy industry. This enables the comparison of emissions between the business-as-usual (BAU) and the smart solutions applied, thus deriving the carbon savings. Several case studies involving the modelling and analysing DR programmes are successfully performed. Thus, the thesis represents novel analytical and numerical techniques applied in the fast-growing UK market of smart energy solutions.