Trust in institutions and economic indicators in the eurozone: The role of the crisis

Abstract

The paper investigates the role of economic indicators as determinants of trust in the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC) and the European Parliament (EP) in eleven countries of the Eurozone, from 1999 to 2013, using country level data from the European Commission’s Eurobarometer survey. This paper aims to shed light particularly on the role played by income distribution, together with standard economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation, in the consolidation of supranational institutions. The empirical analysis also controls for financial market shocks, including domestic bond yields and stock market returns. The additional contribution is to analyze whether the sensitiveness of trust has been strengthened during the recent crisis, associating binary dummies to explanatory variables. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: a) income inequality negatively affects trust in the EC and the EP in normal times; in crisis times, this relation is strengthened and extended to the ECB for one of the two indexes of trust considered; b) inflation and unemployment significantly affect trust in all European Institutions after the crisis.