Analysis of signals related to the generation process of extreme events: towards a unified approach

Abstract

In the last decades, although the scientific community has attempted to explain a series of complex phenomena, ranging from natural hazards to physical conditions and economic crises, aspects of their generation process still escape our full understanding. The present thesis intends to promote our understanding of the spatiotemporal behavior and the generation mechanisms that govern large and strong earthquakes, employing a broad multidisciplinary perspective for the interpretation of catastrophic events. Two main questions are debated. The first question concentrates on “whether the generation process of an extreme event has more than one facets prior to its final appearance”. In the scientific study of earthquakes, attention is drawn to the predictive capability and monitoring of different precursory observations. Among them preseismic electromagnetic emissions have been also observed indicating that the science of earthquake prediction should be from the start multidisciplinary. Drawing on recently introduced models for earthquake dynamics, that address issues such as long-range correlations, self-affinity, complexity-organization and fractal structures, the present work endeavors to further penetrate on the analysis of preseismic electromagnetic emissions and elucidate their link with the generation process of large and strong earthquakes. A second question deals with “whether there is a unified approach for the study of catastrophic events”. This question implies the possibility for common statistical behavior of diverse extreme events and the potential for transferability of methods from the study of earthquake dynamics across other fields. On these grounds, the present work extends the focus of inquiry to the analysis of electroencephalogram recordings related to epileptic seizures, in the prospect to identify common mechanisms that may explain the nature and the generation process of both phenomena, and to open up different directions for future research. Finally, with a view to consider alternative ways of studying key theoretical principles associated with the generation process of catastrophic phenomena, a relevant framework based on proposed algorithms is presented, focusing on parameters such as: the energy of earthquakes, the mean and maximum magnitude of the sample, the probability that two samples may come from the same population. Such an attempt aims to contribute to the knowledge of natural phenomena, by extending the existing theory and models and providing a few more ways for their interpretation.